October 30, 2004

WELL...CRAP.

You may call that a Terror Mastermind. I call it a greasy wet spot on the wall of a cave in Afghanistan.

The man is dead. Dead, or just possibly captured. The likelihood of him having been killed at Tora Bora by US 'outsourcing' was rising with his deafening silence concerning each American counterstroke and became 100% when nothing was heard from the late Osama after the US invasion of Iraq.

Bill Whittle
DETERRENCE
October 6th, 2004

eggface.jpg


I am now openly stating that Kerry will win with over 95% of the vote, and praying that my predictive ability remains up to par.

Posted by Proteus at October 30, 2004 9:42 AM







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Now let's see some distributed intelligence and basic human decency! Don't make me come down there every five minutes!




Comments



I'm gonna have to agree with you here Mr. Whittle. If my ability to predict winners in my football pool, I must state, unequivocally and without a shadow of a doubt that this election will turn out to be a landslide victory for John F-ing Kerry and will completely validate the blame-America-firsters. Of course, everyone will then have to agree that the root cause of every problem in the world is America's strength and damnably successful capitalism.

I actually had to have the same discussion with a co-worker, since I had just pointed out your reasoning for why I though bin Laden was dead. Mmmm. Humble Pie!

I just want to add, since this is my first comment here, that I have loved your site and consider it the required text for "How and Why to love America 101." I had previously taken "Systems Theory and Government Operation 101: How America's Existence Makes the World's Continued Existence Possible" as taught by the inimitable Steven den Beste. Thanks Prof!



I forgot to mention that it says something about our success in our attempt to reduce or remove OBL's abilities to attack us that he had to deliver his message in the form of a video tape to Al-Jazeera rather than in the form of an airplane sent into the Sears Tower. I think it shows that this bastard isn't refraining from attacking because he is being gracious enough to give us the chance to vote "the Bush the Son" out of office; he isn't attacking us because he just can't.

On top of that, he actually thinks he can affect the electorate in the direction he wants. Instead he will most likely remind some undecideds that "Oh yeah, we still have a job to do. Do I REALLY think Kerry's gonna do it?"

Of course, with all of the Moore-onic talking points he used, maybe these Hollywood useful idiots are actually useful to us. They keep our enemy thinking that Americans are soft and have no resolve to stand behind their convictions and see a war to its end.



I'll take mine over easy, Bill.

On my radio show appearances for my books, I've stated about a hundred times that Osama Bin Room Temperature since Tora Bora. I just couldn't believe it yesterday. I was so sure!

The good thing about Osama's appearance: Barking moonbats who declare that Bush and the Jeeeews were responsible for 9-11 can now take it up with OBL, since he openly claimed responsibility.

Second, OBL apparently wants to call a time out since he's losing badly. No bloody threats, no promises of an Islamic revolution. Instead he sounds like someone who wants the person hitting him to please stop.

Finally, I'm hoping some very big brains are deconstructing the fabric backround in OBL's speech, the ambient noise, all deliveries to Al Jazeera, and are preparing to track back to OBL's spider lair and haul him out.

Cute photoshop, BTW. I feel the same way. (Sigh.)



Yes, you were the first one I thought of when he appeared as you had me convinced. I would have bet a grand on that grease spot. Oh well, it is almost worth the delay in his reckoning to be able to imagine the look on Kerry’s face when he heard about this October surprise, which cannot possibly be blamed on a dirty trick by the GOP.



I am skeptical. I still think he is room temperature. One need only watch some of todays current movies to see that making a video where "bindeadlongtime" appears alive is possible.
I am not saying it isnt possible that he still lives, just not probable.
If he is alive, he is irrelevant. And that is even better.



Well, given all of the signs, it was not a completely ridiculous assumption. DAMN, I wish it were true.

No matter. He'll be a stain in a cave soon enough. My son-in-law is in country, now! (brave smile)

This is your face. This is your face with a side of bacon and some wheat toast.

Keep on writing! You make me proud to be an American and, thanks to the elections this year, that takes some doing.



OBL is dead, Mullah Omar is dead.

I am unconvinced that this is a recent video. I think he is a Muppet being manipulated by Assam the American under the podium.

Assume for a moment that he is still alive, would he be rooting for George Bush or John Kerry? Or would he just be a senior statesman passing out sage advice to us infidels?

Have to come down on the side of John Kerry. If so, Kerry just about has a wrap with endorsements from every terrorist leader in the world. Man. I'm impressed, he wasn't lying about all the foreign leaders that want him to win!!

Incidently, I voted in Georgia yesterday. 5 hour wait, and they closed the Courthouse doors at 5pm. Lots of voters still inside. No one left, last votes cast at about 10pm. No Kerry bumber stickers in sight!



If it really was Osama (I just can't believe anything I see on TV any more), it was so uncharacteristic of him and his rantings that it might as well NOT be him. If that makes any sense. I think that your opinion was well-reasoned, and that you don't deserve egg on your face (although the picture is hilarious).

My hubby thinks that the tape has nothing to do with the US election, and everything to do with Zarkawi's recent attempt to merge with al Qaida. Bin Laden's got to show his face to keep Zarkawi from taking over his mob.



The OBL Tape is a fake. If one reads the transcript it reeks of American politics - not with Muslim. No Mention of the Koran. For a full analysis see 'OBL Tape Fraud & Political Manipulation' at: http://boards.fool.com/message.asp?mid=21526309



Well, I've always thought it was best to wait for some remains that can be DNA tested for confirmation. :)

Besides, has any analysis of the voice been performed? Not to mention a translation of what Bin Laden's voice said, as opposed to what Al Jazeera said he said?



Well I have to admit that I was waiting for your comments of this. My first thought when I heard the news is I wonder what Bill has to say about OBL. - I came across your web-site just recently and have thoroughly enjoyed your essays and looked forward to purchasing your book. I have also suggested many others to read your sentiments, as they truly reflect our rights as Americans to free speech, bravo. I must also say from the very beginning of this election campaign I have stood by John Kerry, I do believe he is the better candidate to lead our country. Your Deterrence essay did make me question my reasons for voting for this man, but in the end reaffirmed my conviction that we need a new direction. The best way for us to show that we will not be manipulated by these terrorists is to show that we are strong at home. The best way to do this is through an environment of inclusion not exclusion, John Kerry will bring this to table by listening to all points of view from Republicans, Democrats, Independents, conservatives, moderates and yes the even the loony left wing liberals (who hurt our country so deeply with things like the Civil Rights Act). Again kudos to you for your brilliant work here, your words are entrenched with the love of your country. Remember in the end we are all inspired by the same thing, no matter how different our ideas may be, the freedom that Old Glory stands for. God bless America.



I always thought you were just drawing him out. I'm sure he reads eee.com. Well done. No worries, we will get him eventually.

Thanks for you excellent work. Your writing is inspiring, thoughtful and quite enjoyable to read.

Double yokes in your airplane. Very nice!




AHAHaAh



>err... the rest of my post got cut off... I used the "heart" symbol with a greater less (or whichever) sign and hopefilly that didnt mess anything up... closing html brace at the start of this msg, just in case..

<3 bill

thats what I wanted to say

EHEHEhehehwhewhehw :D



As many of you already know, the OBL tape was made by Sahab Enterprises, the propaganda arm of al Qaeda. They have an exclusive agreement with al Jazeera TV to air OLB tapes. One would be wise to Not Trust what the Enemy puts forth to the public.

Note that al Jazeera supposedly edited the 18 minute tape to 3 minutes cutting out references to Bush - but not to Kerry this could indicate OBL was dead before Kerry came on the scene (see Debka.com). Here is some background info from HomelandSecurityUS.com :

Sahab Enterprise, Al Sahab Productions, Sahab Instite for Media Production.

"Al-Sahab enterprises, a/k/a al Sahab Productions (al Sahab is Arabic for "the clouds") is known as the "public relations arm" of al Qaeda. "Credits" include a 105-minute video entitled "Destroying the Destroyer Cole," ...that contains images of the attack and old footage of bin Laden praising the attackers...Many previously released tapes are of high quality and frequently show footge of vintage Osama bin Laden...Al Sahab enterprises is reportedly operated by a terrorist who is identified by the name "Abi Osama" [translated "Oama's Father"]...Abi Osama state: "We...edit the videotapes...in special ways, and send them to...Al Jazeera, in response to orders issued to us."

see 25% down:
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/



Can I borrow the egg goggles when you're finished?
I can't even begin to count how many TROLLS I said "oh STFU, ya moonbat/leftard/f***weasel" to when they whined, "Bush didn't get UBL!" (as if POTUS would be digging in Afghani/Paki caves looking around, HA!--although Hanoi John says HE will "hunt down and kill").
Anyway, I like to imagine it's "Weekend at Osama's." Or something.
He is one worthless and weak pathetic raghead in that video, though, isn't he! Laughable!



which cannot possibly be blamed on a dirty trick by the GOP

Oh, but the moonbats ARE saying it was a Rove stunt! Not kidding!



The first thought that crossed my mind was this site. I still have a hard time really believing it is him. Two terrorist tapes in one week is strange. I have to admit I have been checking the site every hour to see what you had to say about this. I am hoping the will be another essay before the election.



I have to admit, at the first word of the story about bin Laden, my thoughts were to you and your statement.

It is one thing to analys the current/past events, it is another to predict the unknown.

As always, your thoughts are right on the money, your analysis of events was correct and your rationality was clear.

Thank you for your work.



Hello Turbo (c:

Four words: PDFs done? Book soon?

Fondly,



Well, Bill, I'm sorry, it's all my fault. I know I should keep my mouth shut on things like this. I just had to go and tell my wife the same thing (after having read it here) when she started on the Kerry "Bush let him get away" line. I did this about 4 days ago. Next thing I know, I hear the announcement about the tape. Happens to me all the time. Sorry, man...



Everyone's looking at the eggs, but all I can see is a Lancair Columbia. Mmmmmmm..... good! :)



Remember the TV commercial that featured the late brilliant Fred Astaire dancing with a vacuum cleaner? Or the spot with Humphrey Bogart in a crowded 90’s bar? Or the ‘92 CD Natalie Cole released that featured a beautiful duet created with her father’s recording from three decades earlier? Or the movie “Contact” in which the face of Bill Clinton was layered onto a character in a staged cabinet meeting along with a bunch of actors?

Working at Atari Games in 1994 I was sent to a software company in Santa Barbara for training with Kinemation, predecessor to the software now known as Maya. I think it was used for the first “Jurassic Park” dinosaur animation. During the same period another group at Atari was working out a proprietary motion capture system, to record the 3D positional data of a moving human actor’s performance. I know these things work. I’ve used the tools.

By now there must be 50 thousand people around the world who have the fundamental knowledge of the tools to create a faked video of a human actor. But to do a really convincing job--- one without obvious artifacts of the processes used--- would require access to very expensive equipment and very high-definition images of the person being faked.

The question then becomes, “What’s the point?” The tools needed to make a convincing faked vhs tape have been around for quite a while. The examples I mentioned were produced in the 1990’s, and would quickly be spotted as composites by any of the thousands of media professionals currently working. The problem is less whether a fake could be spotted by experts, than that many people would likely dismiss the experts because of the insane political bias that has our culture in its grip.

Walter Cronkite was already quoted as accusing Karl Rove as having something to do with the Osama tape. Considering that Kerry’s people regard allegation as proof, I think Karl ought to go ahead and take credit.

Still, it would be good to have an independent translation.



well, nobody can be correct all the time. hope your election prediction works in the way it was intended. hope the eggs dont interfere with your flying.



I voted yesterday morning -- I got there a half hour before the doors opened, and I was about 80th in line -- and while I was waiting (trying desperately to read my book while two incredibly rude people ahead of me were having a very loud exchange of "Cliche'd Soundbyte Wisdom," or "CSW"), I realized something about myself.

After talking badly for all these months about the "Anybody But Bush" logic, I realized that I would have voted for Bush regardless of who his opponent was, even if they'd managed to resurrect Ronnie or JFK for the part. And it has nothing to do with any great love for the man or any belief in the perfection of his vision or politics (particularly his domestic policy). It has to do with America's image to the rest of the world.

I picture first the image we've been working so hard lately to reverse -- that of a big, blustering paper tiger, full of empty threats, and impotent convictions. I picture what it took for us to reverse that image -- it took making some pretty bold promises, and then following through with them. It took standing our ground, and it took seeing the fight all the way through. It took a politically suicidal courage for George Bush to stand tough in the face of the typical vacillating resolve of the American public, but he did it, and it was working. And our enemies (and friends) overseas have been watching these approaching elections as a test of "our" (meaning the nation's) true character -- namely, is George Bush just a fluke, the lone stalwart voice that still remembers and is determined to honor the promises he/we made on September 12th, or is AMERICA, as a whole, no longer the self-centered, short-attention-span debuttante it has shown itself to be for so long, and will stick to its guns as it said it would? Will AMERICA, as a NATION (not just a whiny child being dragged along by its nanny) stand by its commitments to its enemies and allies alike and see this thing through?

And with this credibility issue hanging in the balance this November, I realized that if ANYONE other than George Bush is (re)elected, we undo all (if not at least an awful lot) of the good that's been done on that particular front. If George Bush is not sustained in office for another 4 years, we are effectively announcing to the world that we are not the same nation that made those promises three years ago, and we're throwing out the one guy that not only voiced them for us, but who actually had the chutzpa to ACT on them, to the surprise of all.

If John Kerry is elected, even if he lives up to every one of his campaign promises (many of which I consider to be delusional at best, impossible at worst) -- and I'd settle for him at least TRYING to see them to fruition -- it wouldn't matter. Because, regardless of Kerry's good intentions and efforts, the bottom line would be that we -- WE -- threw out the first guy in decades who actually made good on his threats and promises alike, the guy who gave America its credibility back, who actually left the world (and many Americans) reeling at the very idea that we, as a nation, might just start making a habit of DOING WHAT WE SAY WE'RE GOING TO DO! We'd be saying, in effect, that regardless of the courage and stalwartness of our individual leaders, WE, as a nation, are still the weak-willed, short-sighted, impotent party-boys that the world has had good reason for so many years to believe us to be. And the long-term ramifications from that kind of a regression are more unsettling to me than the mere presence of a Democrat in the Oval Office.

Regardless of what anyone thinks about George Bush or John Kerry individually, OUR national credibility is at stake here. Our enemies are looking desperately for a weakness in our resolve. And throwing out the symbol, the voice, and the enabler of that resolve, regardless of how much better we think his replacement might be, is a sign of the very weakness they're looking for. It returns us to the image of our second-guessing past, it reinforces our age-old image as short-sighted, short-attention-span dabblers in international politics, and it shows OUR unwillingness to live up to our leader's example.

In my opinion, of course.

Guess who I voted for.

GHS



WOW GHS...you hit a row of nails on the head.

Nice Bill...not only egg on your face...but somehow an allusion to the "whites of their eyes" too :).

I've been on two minds on this- while it seemed logical to conclude the bastard was dead- I couldn't help thinking we would have moved heaven and hell to show the world he was gone.

As to the content of his message- hearing and reading pundits/analysts theorizing it was a script written for him in an attempt to speak directly to the American people. Assuming, apparently, that we would take his words to heart.

In other news...went to the Orlando rally last night for GWB. We were about 17,000 screaming, hollering supporters. Here's what I saw and heard: An enormous number of YOUNG (18-25) people there. Deliberately eavesdropping on as many conversations as I was able- I heard very few talking points recited. Instead I heard heartfelt agreement with policies such as tax reform, SS reform and lots of talk about his character. Also- there were a few who seemed of the "anyone BUT Kerry" mindset- an intriguing reversal of the lib stance!

I also saw some elderly people - a couple brought in wheelchairs, waving their signs and smiling.

The enthusiasm for the president was amazing- we interrupted him a lot with applause and "4 more years". He seemed focused, upbeat and so sincere.

A side note- my son (101st AB) tells me if GWB is re-elected everyone in his platoon will re-up. If Kerry is elected the number drops to about 5. This is from soldiers who've already done a year in Iraq- willing to do it again under GWB.

Hope to hear from you before the election Bill!
Deb



Bill--somebody posted that toy store story in my comments, too--only they signed YOUR name to it. Just thought I'd let you know in case you want me to stomp 'em....



Bill,

Nice glass cockpit!

Here's to you batting 1.000 on your predictions!



OK, so we may have gotten one wrong? Who really cares, the man went from the number one enemy of the US to obscure nuance. I won't debate his effectiveness, nor how many might follow his tactics. I will not even debate whether we are at war, people have already made up their minds. I will not debate money wasted, or spent, or why. What I will debate is social security, and the Earned Income Credit. I will debate finances, and why NASA spent billions, or why we attempt to be the best. I do not need the government to supply me with health care, or money I did not earn, nor retirement, I require a government to be non intrusive and protect our interests. Our interests are diverse, and such allows representation, not diversion. There are many great minds online, and a discussion can only make one think about what is not obvious to the pensive, perhaps changable mind. "A strong man is too sure of himself to change his mind, even given overwhelming facts that do not support his position" The same is quite true of an idiot, but the strong man has the upper ground, he must be defeated, while the weak mind needs only other weak minds to supplant that idea that is defeatism. I too predict a Kerry win, perhaps we deserve to give him a chance/change, his record certainly shows he will do nothing wrong, but you might note it defines nothing right, or any stand at all, save losing is acceptable, even preferred. God is on the side of noone, but he prefers one who is dependable, or so the scriptures state, I hear. My meanderings will not change any votes, I have no desire to influence others, but Bill and GHS should, or the flock of sheep will see the wolves move. The allegory should not be lost, no matter how they influence others.

Rik



Oh, c'mon. Keep your sense of cynicism.

It was said he had doubles. The man in the video, pretty subdued, is a double. The real bin Laden is dead, right?



Interesting, one of my best buds just got out of the 101 and he says that everyone he knows HATES Bush. He hates Bush with a passion that surprises me as well. Thinks the war was mismanaged and holds POTUS responsible for the fact that our troops do not have the tools or manpower they need for the job.



Bill, is that an IMAO t-shirt you're wearing?

;)



aww...don't feel too bad, sparky. We'll get him.



I'm not so sure yet, but I admire your integrity.

all the best

Dave



Is it just me or does anyone else find this photo strangely erotic?

Nevermind. I come down on the UBL at room temp side too...the script was too contrived, sounds like marketing bullet points written by committee in an Al-Jaz backroom.



Hey Bill, don't worry, you're not the only one who needs a little help from Adobe. I'd much prefer that he be a big messy stain right now, but overall we could do a lot worse than him living as a fugitive trying to hold together the remains of his shattered organization instead of plotting attacks on us. WW2 wasn't a failure despite the fact that we didn't get Hitler, and this war will probably be a success despite the fact that we may not get Osama, the goals here are far bigger than simple retribution.



Now, unless Kerry manages to pull some really really nasty tricks, he is down for the count.



can anyone tell me what Rik just said in his post of 10/31, about 9 posts back? That's what we need in this blogosphere--good, coherent writing stating a clear untractable position.

don



In the war on terror, the forces of civilization are restrained by their morals, while the forces of terror are restrained only by their ability. We have the power to turn the entire Mideast into a radioactive hell, but refrain from doing it. Would the terrorists show the same restraint? Osama, if that WAS Osama, is reduced to making impotent threats via cheezy videos handed off to terrorist sympathizers.

And from this some people claim we're LOSING the War on Terror!?!!



No wonder you were flying blind...you've got fried eggs over your eyes! Geesh!



I myself have no clue, Don, just chalk it up to gibberish from a mind way too shell shocked to make sense. Coherency was never my strong point, killing the enemy is. This from a man that would not harm a cockroach, out of respect for it's abilities to survive. A cockroach is never a threat to me or my family.

Rik



very smart =)



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